Free run tool · no account
What are the odds you draw the card you need?
Enter the cards remaining in your draw pile, how many count as a target, and how many you will draw. Compare consistency without treating deck size as a fixed rule.
Count the cards still in the draw pile
Exclude cards already in your hand, discard pile, or Exhaust pile. Count all copies that would satisfy your target.
Chance of drawing at least one target
44.74%
A draw probability, not a win probability. Even a result close to 100% is not a guarantee.
20 cards in the pile · 2 target copies · 5 cards drawn without replacement
Remove one non-target card
46.78%
Same target count and draw count; one fewer non-target in this pile. This models consistency only, not the full value of a shop removal.
Draw one extra card
52.11%
One extra draw from the same pile, without crossing a reshuffle.
When this calculation applies
The remaining pile must be uniformly shuffled, and each drawn card stays out of that pile during this calculation. Use it for a known number of draws from one pile, before a reshuffle.
Do not use it to model known top cards, tutors, Innate cards, a guaranteed opening card, hand retention, generated cards, or effects that alter the draw order. If a draw empties the pile and shuffles the discard pile, calculate that situation separately. This tool does not simulate a combat or read your save.
The model, not a simulation
For pile size N, target copies K, and draws n:
P(at least one) = 1 − C(N − K, n) / C(N, n)
C(a, b) counts ways to choose b cards from a. If there are fewer non-targets than draws, a target is guaranteed under this model. Calculations use the hypergeometric model, with ordinary floating-point rounding for display.
Mathematical reference: R hypergeometric documentationA simple opening-hand example
With 20 shuffled cards, one target, and five draws, the chance is 25%. With two target copies, it is about 44.74%. These are illustrative counts, not a claim about a character's starter deck or a particular seed.
The removal comparison assumes you remove a non-target from this pile while leaving target copies and draws unchanged. Removing your only damage solution may make a real deck worse even when a consistency number improves.